Efiko Group

GDP change in Eurozone, USA and Finland from 2004 to 3Q / 2011

2011-12-03T11:22:00.000+02:00

Chances of Recession in 2012

2011-11-28T13:07:00.004+02:00

Here are estimates from selected consensus analyst estimates. Recession is defined as negative growth in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters.

Eurozone: 50%
USA: 35-40 %
Finland: 40 %.

Odds are favoring to have some presence in stock markets right now. What are the best stocks if recession occurs? Try our portfolios with “Balanced portfolio”- risk-classification (minimum billing 20 €)

This is not an recommendation, see disclaimer at the end of this page.

Where to Invest in New Normal Economy

2011-11-21T13:20:00.004+02:00

New Normal refers to combination of slow or negative growth, high inflation (specially rising price of energy), high unemployment rate and slowing globalization.

It is our assessment that you should have some position in stocks even during these insecure times.

Try one of our model stock portfolios in risk-classification "Balanced portfolio" as a low-risk investment.

This is not an recommendation, see disclaimer at the bottom of the website.

Market Outlook 11/2011 Eurozone, USA, Finland

2011-11-14T13:03:00.010+02:00

Finland

1. Many companies reported strong 3Q 2011.

2. GDP expected to slow down to 1,5 % by the end of 2011. Many stocks are attractive to buy.

3. CPI for FY2011 around 2,8 %

4. Consumer confidence around 2009 levels.

5. Unemployment rate near 7 % for FY2011, expected to rise in 2012.

Stocks: Normal weight

OMXHPI

Eurozone

1. CPI in Euro area is estimated to decrease to around 2,5 % for FY2011 and decrease more to around 2,0 % for FY2012.

2. Unemployment in Euro area steady around 10 % since 1Q2010. Estimates suggest it to increase to 11 % before end of 2011. FY2012 around same as 2011.

3. Low interest rates could stimulate economy and create job opportunities and decrease unemployment in long-term but yet there are no signs of this. How is debt crisis effecting on money and financial markets remains unanswered.

Some kind of Eurobond-system would be positive news to markets. Eurozone breakup is also to be consided as one option.

4. GDP growth in Euro area is estimated to slow down to 0,5 % (down from 1,0%) for FY2011 but to increase around 1,0 % (down from 1,8 %) for FY2012. If current debt problems are solved.

5. We estimate chance for recession in Eurozone 40 % probability to happen in next 5 years.

Current debt problems (rising bond yields and overdebted governments etc.) cause us to recommend: Stocks: Moderate underweight

USA

DJI
COMPX
OSPTX

1. We see attractive prices in following sectors: Finance and Retail trade. 1 year change S&P 500: +4.15 %. Average P/E 16 is highish considering debt problems and slowing GDP growth

Stocks: Normal weight

This is not an recommendation. See disclaimer at end of the page.

Weight levels:
1. Strong underweight
2. Underweight
3. Moderate underweight
4. Normal weight
5. Moderate overweight
6. Overweight
7. Strong overweight

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Starting a Business in a Challenging Economy

2011-10-31T13:14:00.001+02:00

Many people shy away from the idea of starting a new business when the economy is on the rocks, but in fact, quite a few lasting, profitable corporations got started in times of economic turmoil.

From a financing point of view, entrepreneurs in our current economy should not expect to find significant backing from banks or individual sponsors. However, if they have enough capital to get going and can demonstrate that their products or services are unique or especially valuable, they have a solid shot at succeeding.

Wholesalers, credit card processing account should be fairly affordable since the economy is forcing them to lower their prices in order to continue doing business.

In short, don't put off starting a new company because of the economy. Now may be the very best time to get into business!

Stocks: Normal weight

2011-10-31T13:06:00.002+02:00

Due to current events concerning EU debt problems and decisions made in meetings by EU leaders, Efiko Group recommends to add stocks to normal weight in portfolio.Many stocks at current EPS estimates are attractive to buy at current price.

This is not an recommendation. See disclaimer at end of the page.

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Weight levels:
1. Strong underweight
2. Underweight
3. Moderate underweight
4. Normal weight
5. Moderate overweight
6. Overweight
7. Strong overweight

Stocks: Moderate underweight

2011-08-23T20:25:00.004+03:00

Due to current events in economy Efiko Group recommends to moderate underweight stocks in portfolio or hold current positions and wait until more data on economic development is available.

We admit that many stocks at current EPS estimates are attractive to buy at current price.

This is not an recommendation. See disclaimer at the end of the page.

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Weight levels:
1. Strong underweight
2. Underweight
3. Moderate underweight
4. Normal weight
5. Moderate overweight
6. Overweight
7. Strong overweight

EU economy outlook for 2011 and 2012

2011-08-22T09:00:00.000+03:00